Friday, April 16, 2010

Final Mock Draft, First Round

This will be my final shot at a mock draft before the draft. There are always first round trades, but I'm not going to try to guess those. I'm just going to base it off of what we currently know. Barring any last minute trades before next Thursday, here is how I see it:

1) Rams - Sam Bradford, QB - The Rams are going with Bradford because they can't escape the #1 pick, and spending that much on a 4-3 DT is crazy. The safer pick I still feel is Clausen, but Bradford offers more of an upside. Even if they do trade this to Cleveland, the Browns will take Bradford.

2) Lions - Russell Okung, OT - The Lions are trying to entice someone to move up to grab Suh ahead of Tampa so that Lions fans don't go crazy when they do the smart thing and pass over Suh. The Lions have already made vast improvements to their defensive line and have quite a bit invested their.  They now need to turn to their offensive line. To win games, your offense must score. That's hard to do when your field general is on his back the whole time. This is also an easier move to financially justify, and the bust rate for OT is significantly lower than the DT bust rate.

3) Bucs - Ndamukong Suh, DT - The Bucs gutted their defensive roster and need to start rebuilding.  At number three, they get arguably the best player in the draft.

4) Redskins - Trent Williams, OT - This move makes the most sense with the recent acquisition of McNabb from Philly.  They need a replacement at LT and he fits the zone blocking scheme.

5) Chiefs - Bryan Bulaga, OT - The Chiefs could benefit from Eric Berry, but that is not how their front office works. They are a positional value club. They value an OT more than a S.  After a bad year for Cassel (and a lot of money paid for him), the Chiefs will do what is best for their team.

6) Seahawks - Gerald McCoy, DT - Everyone is surprised he's dropped this far.  Seattle rejoices. It is like the heavens have smiled upon them. They could use the help on the DL and who better than arguably the best player in this years class.

7) Browns - Eric Berry, S - Something tells me they don't like Jimmy Clausen, and no it's not Holmgren's comment. It is the fact that they are discussing trading up to get Bradford when it is very likely that they will have a good shot at Clausen.  Unless that is all an elaborate smoke screen by Holmgren (and it could be), I would think they'll wait until later to get a QB.

8) Raiders - Bruce Campbell, OT - He's an athlete. Al Davis loves workout guys. He can't take Clausen so soon after J. Russell.  Taylor Mays may go here too due to his size and speed.  If Davis passes on Campbell, I think he falls to the second round.

9) Bills - Jimmy Clausen, QB - With some of the top tackles off the board, the Bills are in an awkward spot. They need a QB and an OT and the most likely teams have already passed on Clausen. They could get away with trading down to get to a point where they still get Clausen and an OT.  Regardless, the Bills need to get fans enthused and sell some tickets. They have a high pick in the second and can use that on an OT.

10) Jaguars - Derrick Morgan, DE - Yes, the Jags just signed Kampman, but they are always out for positional value.  Morgan is a great player and will provide a nice insurance policy should Kampman not be ready to go early on.

11) Broncos - Dez Bryant, WR - Why would Josh Daniels want another possible diva receiver? Who knows? Why did he want Cassel when he had Cutler? The need is there and Daniels, being an offensive minded guy needs someone who can catch the ball and help them get points on the board.

12) Dolphins - Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB - The Dolphins DT Jason Ferguson is out for the first 8 weeks, but Bill Parcels is smart enough to not let that affect his choice. They have Pierre-Paul rated higher than Dan Williams, and that is who they get. Plus, if San Diego doesn't grab DT Cody, Miami could get a shot at him early in the second.

13) 49ers - Joe Haden, CB - San Fransisco isn't far off from being a serious contender in a weak division. They can take the best player available, get good positional value, and fill a need with Joe Haden.

14) Seahawks - Anthony Davis, OT - Dez Bryant is gone. Still a great spot to pick up a very talented OT.

15) Giants - Rolando McClain, ILB - The Giants released Pierce.  They didn't make any offseason moves to fill the void which leads one to believe that they like a few of this years linebackers.

16) Titans - Dan Williams, DT - The Titans have been missing Haynesworth something fierce.  Williams is a great DT and could give them some production right away.

17) 49ers - Sergio Kindle, OLB - Not a top need, but a great player that combined with Haden would have an immediate impact on their pass defense.

18) Steelers - CJ Spiller, RB - Spiller falls to the Steelers and they can't pass him up after losing some depth at RB this offseason.  He's a great compliment to Mendenhall and give the Steelers a more dynamic offense.

19) Falcons - Brandon Graham, DE - He's got great positional value here and I'm not sure any of the guys around here would make a better impact on this team than a great pass rusher.

20) Texans - Earl Thomas, S - He's fallen a bit further than everyone expected, but the Texans grab him up.  They've done well drafting defensive players in the first round. They will stick with what works for them.

21) Bengals - Jermaine Gresham, TE - The Bengals need another target for Palmer.  They get one, just not at the exact position they were thinking.

22) Patriots - Jared Odrick, DE - One could argue he's the best player on the board that fits their system.  He'll fill in where Seymour left.

23) Packers - Mike Iupati, OG - Best guard in the class. Some say he could line up at tackle if he has to. Regardless, Green Bay gets a great football player.

24) Eagles - Ryan Matthews, RB - McNabb is gone. Westbrook is gone. Kolb is going to need someone to help him out when things aren't clicking. If they don't go up and grab Spiller somehow, they'll take Matthews here.

25) Ravens - Kyle Wilson, CB - Ravens waste no time handing the card to the commissioner when they realize Wilson has fallen into their laps.

26) Cardinals - Taylor Mays, S - They are really hurting this year. Mays offers them help and has a tremendous upside.

27) Cowboys - Sean Weatherspoon, ILB - Jones should consider taking Charles Brown, but he never takes an OL in round one. He needs something flashier.

28) Chargers - Terrance Cody, DT - He's the best replacement in the draft for Jamal Williams.  It is a bit of a reach, but the other route would be Jahvid Best who is also a bit of a reach.  There aren't enough big men out there, so Cody is the pick.

29) Jets - Everson Griffen, OLB - Big strong pass rusher that will bolster an already great defense. A Ryan type of guy.

30) Vikings - Brian Price, DT - They should go after Colt McCoy here, but they won't.  The feeling in Minnesota is all or nothing this year and no one cares about afterward. Retirement looms for Big Pat and Price would be a good 4-3 DT.

31) Colts - Charles Brown, OT - They are committed to doing something about their offensive line and Brown is arguably the best player left on the board.

32) Saints - Nate Allen, S - They have a pretty solid team. Sharper hasn't signed yet, and this will help drive his price down, while getting a great player for the future.


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