Judging Ted's moves...

And no, not his dance moves....


But in all seriousness, I have been reading a lot of articles saying Ted should trade down this year.  At first, I was on board with the idea.  Then I started to really think about it and wanted some more concrete reasoning behind the idea. So, I went back and looked at all of Ted's previous drafts.  


I tried to keep the criteria as general as possible.  I looked at only a few things: Round player was drafted in, if they are currently a starter on any team, if they are a Pro-Bowler, if they are still with the Packers, and if they are still on any roster in the NFL.


I'll skip the individual classes and just post the totals from 2005 - 2009:

Basically, Ted done a pretty good job drafting NFL-caliber players and a pretty good job retaining those players.  He has also done fairly well finding starters in the first two rounds. In fact, those starters have a good chance of becoming Pro-Bowl caliber players.  If you look at the first two rounds, just over half of the starters are drafted there. If you incorporate the third round, almost 75% of Ted's starters are from rounds 1-3.  The other thing about this is that players that are drafted in rounds 1 and 2 are very likely to remain with and contribute to the team.  Ted does a much better job grabbing good players in the 1st round per quantity of players drafted than even in the 2nd. The 3rd is tough due to the small sample size. 


Another thing to note here (and this is seen more from looking at the individual classes), is when Ted trades back, he's managed to add good depth to the roster.  However, when he has retained his first round pick or traded up into the first again, he has done a good job of getting starting caliber players.


Ted has at least one starter per class. In 2007 and 2008 Ted traded back heavily and only produced 3 current starters, one being Mason Crosby.  Last year, when trading up, he produced 3 starters.


So what is the bigger need for the Pack this year? Starters or depth? The age old debate of quantity vs quality. This is a very important year as the Pack tries to make the ultimate "Lambeau Leap".


Also, I'd be more than happy to email anyone the .xls document with my findings if you want it. 

A few thoughts on possible moves at this point

After the first big weekend of free agency, the Packers roster is as predicted.  Clifton re-signed and Kampman gone.

The positions of need for the Packers I would argue are OT, OLB, CB/S, RB, and any other OL.

For OT, I still would love to see some sort of deal made for OT Jermon Bushrod from the Saints.  He stepped in last year for the full year and played well enough to help his team to a Super Bowl.  They only have a second-round tender on him and it has been rumored the Saints are willing to part ways with one of their three RFA OT's. I think he could be gotten for maybe less than a second rounder. I feel it would be worth even a second round pick to get a young, capable, potential LT. He could back up Clifton and it would be no worse than what he is doing in Baltimore, with a greater potential to play and eventually start.  I would also resign Tauscher and look to draft an OT as well.

At OLB in a 3-4 defense, there isn't really anyone worth it in free agency.  This will have to come through the draft.

CB/S is interesting because of the amount of returning players. Lee and Blackmon could do well in the new system.  It wouldn't hurt to draft one as well though.  There just isn't anyone worth the price in free agency(see A. Rolle).

I don't feel RB is as big of an issue because I feel Grant is pretty durable and capable of handling another good season.  But if he were to go down for an extended period of time, I don't feel comfortable with Jackson as an every down back.  I think acquiring a veteran free agent here would be better than spending a draft pick on any of this year's backs unless someone really slips.

Any other OL would be great in the draft.  We could use the depth.

It wouldn't hurt to get some DE depth either.  Maybe a late round project? Maybe, just maybe, Harrell contributes? That would be ideal since he is already on the roster.

Mock Draft, First round (part two)

My mock draft predictions continue...

17) 49ers - They still could use some help at OG, DT, or RT

Verdict: Mike Iupati G, Idaho
Why: While there are still some good OT's on the board, the 49ers have Gore and need to keep their running game strong if they want to give Alex Smith a chance.  Need for a OG is a little bit more prominent and I think he is the only worthy first round OG. They could take C.J. Spiller here, but to be honest, Gore is back and Coffee didn't run too poorly in his absence. Spiller would probably require too much money for a minimal impact.

18) Steelers - Boy, what happened last year?  This team has one of the better rosters in the NFL and they couldn't get it together.  They don't have any glaring holes as it stands. They are in position to take the BPA and they could use some depth at RB or CB.

Verdict: C. J. Spiller RB, Clemson
Last year, they got Mendenall and it paid off well.  He is a powerful back and be quite a workhorse.  Spiller compliments him nice and would give Big Ben another weapon (not that he needs any more).

19) Falcons - Their secondary could really use a boost.  They may be getting that soon as they are reportedly linked to Dunta Robinson.  Now would also be a good time to find a successor to Gonzalez's throne.

Verdict: Kyle Wilson CB, Boise State
Why:  Even if they get Robinson, they could still use a quality guy like Wilson. It would be a nice fit as he wouldn't necessarily have to start immediately.

20) Texans - Another team that needs lots of help.  They could afford to trade down here for some more picks.  But anything will help so best player available is...

Verdict: Bryan Bulaga OT, Iowa
Why: They need help everywhere and should be thrilled with anyone at this point outside of a QB or TE.

21) Bengals - They shocked me last season.  It looks like they've got their groove back a bit.  They could really benefit from a skilled, pass-catching TE or a good S.

Verdict: Jermaine Gresham TE, Oklahoma
Why:  I think it is a position teams don't pay much attention to when they play the Bengals.  They need receiving help and getting a good star TE would provide just that. It might be too early for a TE, but he has a lot of upside and the Bengals won't get him otherwise.

22) Patriots - These guys could really use some help on defense.  They still haven't filled the loss of Richard Seymour.

Verdict: Carlos Dunlap DE, Florida
Why: I think he can bulk up a little bit and be quite an effective end in a 3-4. I know he is projected as a 4-3 DE, but if he can pack on a little muscle he might be able to fill in Seymour's shoes.

23) Packers - The highest priority for them should be protecting Aaron Rodgers.  They struggled with it early last year and with the potential of losing both starting tackles in free agency, better get it together.

Verdict: Trent Williams OT, Oklahoma
Why: He's a guy that continues to work to improve.  He also has the potential to come in and help immediately.  He's a bit undersized weight wise, but that may work to his advantage in a zone-blocking scheme. Depending on training camp and preseason work, he could fill in at either OT position.

24) Eagles - Philly needs to get a bit better defensively if they want to be contenders next year.  That is the side of the ball I would guess they would look to pick on.

Verdict: Sergio Kindle OLB, Texas
Why:  LB is not a strong point for the Eagles and getting a good young player in Kindle would be excellent for them.  He played in a tough conference in college and will probably be one of the more NFL ready players coming out of this draft.

25) Ravens - These guys need a WR like salad needs dressing.  No one just eats lettuce. Well, no one I know of. They could go for a C here too but it may be a bit of a reach.

Verdict: Arrelious Benn WR, Illinois
Why: They have their choice of WR's here and would probably value them higher than anyone else at this point.  Golden Tate has potential, but Benn is a safer choice here. He is a nice big target that Joe Flacco can get comfortable with.

26) Cardinals - Maybe they can trade Leinart to Seattle and move up or accumulate some more picks. It could work out well if Seattle wanted Leinart and the Cards could draft Bradford.  But other than that, they could really use some help on defense.

Verdict: Brian Price DT, UCLA
Why: He'd provide them with a solid upgrade on the DL.

27) Cowboys - Mr. Moneybags could use some fire on his DL.  S wouldn't be a bad pick either.  Unfortunately, there's not much value at any of those spots here for the Boys.  It would be wise to trade up or down here, or take the BPA.

Verdict: Bruce Campbell OT, Maryland
Why: He's a good player and wouldn't be forced to start right away.  He has a nice upside and could help an aging Dallas line.

28) Chargers - The Bolts have really stretched themselves thin at RB.  I have to believe they plan on addressing it in free agency.  They also released DT Jamal Williams without a clear heir.  I am not sure what they are thinking.  I would trade down and draft Terrance Cody maybe?

Verdict: Jared Odrick DT -> DE, Penn State
Why:  He was my original pick for them prior to their crazy cutting. He could make a nice transition to a 3-4 DE and keep the Bolts strong on the defensive side of the ball.

29) Jets - Pretty solid team.  If Sanchez develops well, they could be a force.  They could use another WR and some depth at CB even though they just traded for Antonio Cromartie.

Verdict: Nate Allen S, South Florida
Why: Well I can't really see them spending a first rounder on a CB now.  However, it appears Rhodes is on his way out so a good S would be a nice addition to keep the secondary strong, in case teams start game-planning for Revis island.

30) Vikings - This is pretty easy for the Vikings.  They need a QB for the future, and Washington is looking for a first round pick for Campbell.  If I'm the Vikings, this is the best move.  If Favre decides he has another year in him, that's fine. Campbell stands the possibility of the Skins drafting a QB and him riding pine anyway.  If Favre actually hangs it up, Campbell has starting NFL experience and despite a poor record, has some great potential.  I've read plenty of scouts think he can still be a really good QB for a team that isn't a circus show.  If not, LB or CB could be a good pick here.

Verdict: Patrick Robinson CB, Florida State
Why: A given here since he's a good value and they need help at CB. Winfield isn't getting any younger and has questions surrounding his health.  They would welcome the depth.

31) Colts - They are in pretty rough shape at LB and DT. Lucky for them....

Verdict: Brandon Graham OLB, Michigan
Why:  He could be a steal at this point.  Other teams just don't need him and I've heard his stock is falling a bit.  He could have the upside the Colts need.

32) Saints - The Super Bowl Champs look pretty good across the board yet.  They have some questions at LB and C though.

Verdict: Maurkice Pouncey C, Florida
Why:  He's arguably the best player available here and would give the Saints some good depth on their already good OL.

Some may argue that this mock is too need-based.  To an extent, that may be true. Truth is, teams grade people differently.  This is just what I would do at each position.

Mock Draft, First round (part one)

Just a warning, this is going to be a long one.  I am going to step into each GM's shoes and give what I think makes sense for this years first round of the NFL draft.  I wrote this prior to the start of free agency but I'll update it as I go.

1) Rams - I would take a QB or trade down if I can.  There are too many holes in the depth chart and playing one guy that much doesn't really help them enough. Not to mention that the best two players are not the Rams biggest position needs.  If you have to take the pick though and pay someone that much money, I would make it a QB.

Verdict: Jimmy Clausen QB, Notre Dame
Why: The first pick of the draft is a lot of money.  Bradford may be as good or better than Clausen, but Clausen is not coming off of shoulder surgery.  It's too risky to guarantee a guy that much. Suh and McCoy are tempting and I am a firm believer in building your lines first, but realistically, the Rams play a 4-3 style defense where DT is not as important as in a 3-4 or getting a franchise QB.

2) Lions - The Lions are making a lot of moves and really trying to improve. OL and DL need to be improved, specifically OT and DT.  Lots of holes yet though and trading down could pay off. Again, this guy is going to get lots of guaranteed money.

Verdict: Russell Okung OT,  Oklahoma State
Why: A few updated reasons here.  The Lions signed Nate Burleson giving them a viable number two receiver and Kyle Vanden Bosch helping their DL.  They also traded for former Packer, Corey Williams, DT.  There are lots of teams hungry for OT this year and there are a lot of quality players this year, but Okung is the cream of the crop.  It will help protect their huge investment in Stafford.  Not to mention, again, money plays a role.  It's far easier to justify handing a huge sum of cash to a franchise OT as opposed to a DT in a 4-3 defense.

3) Buccaneers - I would again trade down here maybe too if at all possible.  There are so many holes in the roster and they could still get high quality players they need more a bit later.  But at the same time, having a choice between the two best players in the draft is pretty nice.

Verdict: Ndamukong Suh DT, Nebraska
Why: It might be easy to find a trading partner if Suh does indeed fall this far, but he is too good at this point to pass up.  You are still going to give him a big contract, but if he's as good as they say, it will be worth it.  the Bucs would be a good fit and their current big man, Chris Hovan, is getting up there in years.

4) Redskins - They need some safety help as well as offensive line help.  Shanahan will likely run a zone-blocking scheme so that could mean later round OL picks.

Verdict: Eric Berry S, Tennessee
Why: Taking an offensive lineman isn't flashy enough for Snyder in the first round.  If they sign Clifton, they'll have a stop-gap player until they can get someone else. Taking Bradford is an option, but Jason Campbell has too much potential to give him the boot.  Eric Berry is projected to be quite the safety and in a 3-4, your safety is like your QB.

5) Chiefs - Not really much of a choice here for them. They need help everywhere and are better off getting one of the two best players of the draft. This may be a time when the Chiefs trade out to get more picks as someone will covet a DT more.

Verdict: Gerald McCoy DT, Oklahoma
Why: He is too good of a value to pass up here. Combine him with another couple of good, young linemen in Glen Dorsey and Tyson Jackson and you will have a nice young DL.  I know they are switching to a 3-4, but I don't think they can pass.  They will have to work out who plays NT.  Maybe just a nice rotation for the first year.

6) Seahawks - Unique in that they have two first round picks withing the top 15.  They need an OT, DE, and QB of the future.  There are lots of possibilities here.

Verdict: Sam Bradford QB, Oklahoma
Why:  This move makes sense on lots of levels.  Bradford is considered the only other real first round QB.  There are too many teams between them and their next pick and they wouldn't get him.  He is coming off of shoulder surgery and would get a year or two to develop behind Matt Hasselbeck. Pete Carroll is the new sheriff in town and will get his QB of the future.

7) Browns - Ideally, I would trade this pick down.  They need lots of help specifically in the secondary and at number seven, it may be a little early for anyone left in the secondary.

Verdict: Joe Haden CB, Florida
Why:  There are enough teams that could use corner help behind them that would probably take him. Even though he ran a little slow at the combine, it's not the end of the world.  Holmgren is smart enough to know that tape is a way better indicator than combine workouts.  It's pretty easy to learn if you ever watch Al Davis pick guys. Speaking of him.....

8) Raiders - Funny, in the last few drafts, the Raiders have taken lots of skill position players and oddly enough, those are the positions they need the most help at.  Oh Crazy Al.

Verdict: Taylor Mays S, USC
Why:  He had a great showing at the combine and Al is known for being a little crazy. The Raiders could really use some help at safety and it would surprise people a little bit which I think is Al's style.

9) Bills - They need help badly on their OL and could really use a QB of the future.  New coach usually means new QB in these types of situations.

Verdict: Anthony Davis OT, Rutgers
Why:  There aren't any more QB's that they can't get in the second.  Davis is a great OT and will help protect whoever the Bills get to take the reigns.

10) Jaguars - They really need a WR or DE.  This is a good place for either position, as there are some quality players that meet their needs nicely.

Verdict: Jason Pierre Paul DE, South Florida
Why: He could step in and provide some immediate help to their horrible pass rush.  He is also used to being down in Florida and would probably feel quite comfortable staying.

11) Broncos - They need a quality WR regardless of whether or not Brandon Marshall is around. They could also take a DT here as there are some good ones available.

Verdict: Dez Bryant WR, Oklahoma State
Why: Bryant has too much talent to pass on here.  He is supposedly better than Michael Crabtree. Plus, head coach Josh Daniels is now experienced with "diva" WR and should have a better idea about how to handle Bryant.

12) Dolphins - The Dolphins could really use a true number one WR.  They also need some help on the DL.

Verdict: Dan Williams DT, Tennessee
Why: He's probably the best value here for the Dolphins. Some might say this is a little high for Williams, but truth is that DT's could go quick this year.

13) 49ers - They really look pretty good across the board.  I'd pencil them in for the playoffs next year to be honest if I knew Alex Smith would develop into a viable NFL-level, starting QB.  They aren't too far from having a good team, pending the development of Smith. They could use some help at OG, DT, and FS though.

Verdict: Earl Thomas S, Texas
Why:  They could use some help in the secondary and Singletary is a defense-minded guy.  Thomas would have potential to start contributing at his natural FS position from day one.

14) Seahawks - Now is when they can fill their OL or DE needs and they have plenty of good options.

Verdict: Charles Brown OT, USC
Why: Brown has enough potential to be a good OT and Carroll has coached him and is comfortable with him.  Combined with Bradford, Seattle would be in pretty good shape for quite some time.

15) Giants - They need some help in the secondary on a defense that used to be their strong point.  They have a pretty talented roster though and without anyone filling a position of need perfectly here, they can take whoever they like most.

Verdict: Rolando McClain ILB, Alabama
Why: More depth and a good young ILB never hurt anyone.  The G-men could use the boost and after looking over their roster, offense looks pretty good so you have to figure they value a defensive player a bit more than any offensive player they can get here.

16) Titans - The Titans really can't go wrong taking anyone on the defensive side of the ball(save safety). Another WR would be nice here too.

Verdict: Derrick Morgan DE, Georgia Tech
Why:  They lost Vanden Bosch today.  Their defense is looking thin all around and they have enough to get by on offense.  Getting a guy who can get to Manning would be a good choice here since they see him twice a year.

And now for a break, and on to part two.